Future paths of poverty: a scenario analysis with integrated assessment models
The estimation of poverty levels is crucial in creating effective policies on escaping poverty traps. Over time, scholars have implemented forecast exercises with various tools to provide decision-makers with understanding of the optimal timing for specific actions and the necessary funds to implement a coordinated set of measures. To investigate future scenarios assuming different paths of poverty reduction levers, this paper adopts a sophisticated and integrated assessment model, and hopes to answer: (1) what is a plausible range of poverty levels between pessimistic and optimistic scenarios? (2) what is the path of poverty for single relevant countries? (3) what is the path of other relevant variables such as greenhouse gas emissions and MDGs gaps? and (4) what is the impact of single policy interventions on poverty reduction?. Two distinguished exercises are implemented in this paper: first, analysing the impact of a package of policies including social and economic factors; and studying the impact of individual policies.
CPRC Working Paper
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